June 12, 2006

I want my two hours back

The U.S. just got shelled by the Czech Republic, 0-3. They looked terrible. Missed passes, no running into space, terrible crosses, the list goes on. Depending on the outcome of the Italy-Ghana match that's about to get started, we'll know what the U.S. needs to do to advance to the knock-out phase of the World Cup. Two wins vs. Italy and Ghana would give the U.S. six points; probably enough to advance, but no guarantee.

Update (3:53 CDT): Italy has just won 2-0 over Ghana. This means the U.S. must win the next two matches for a realistic chance at advancing to the knockout stage. My assumption is that the Czech Republic will likely defeat Ghana (6 pts. total) and then at least play Italy to a draw, if not win outright (7 or 9 pts. total). Italy has three points now, and if they get a tie vs. the U.S., they will have 4 points with a positive goal differential of +2. A tie with CR would then give them 5 points, guaranteeing them the second berth out of group E. A loss would still probably advance them on goal differential even if the U.S. defeats Ghana.

The best case scenario would be for the U.S. to defeat both Italy and Ghana (6 pts.) and for the Czech Republic to tie or beat Italy (giving them at best 4 points). It's possible that the U.S. could advance on 4 points, but I would rate that as highly unlikely...

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